Recent wave: v of wave 3 has possibly ended at 0.8067 but wave 4 should hold below 0.9050
Trend: Down
New strategy :
Stand aside
Position : -
Target : -
Stop : -
Although euro's retreat after last week's brief rise to 0.8066 suggests consolidation below this level would be seen, only a break of 0.7920-25 would suggest entire correction from 0.7874 has ended there, bring test of support at 0.7892, once this level is penetrated, this would provide confirmation and bring resumption of early decline for a retest of 0.7874. Looking ahead, a break of this recent low would confirm decline has resumed for weakness to 0.7850-55 and later towards 0.7810-15 (50% projection of 0.8400-0.7959 measuring from 0.8034) which is likely to hold from here.
On the upside, whilst recovery to 0.8000-05 cannot be ruled out, reckon 0.8035-40 would limit upside and bring further consolidation. Only break of said resistance at 0.8066 would revive our previous bullish view that low has been formed at 0.7874 (as wave v of iii) and bring retracement of recent decline to 0.8080, then 0.8100-10, having said that, resistance at 0.8148 should remain intact and bring another selloff later this month. As near term outlook is still mixed, would be prudent to stand aside in the meantime.
Our preferred count is that, after forming a major top at 0.9805 (wave V), (A)-(B)-(C) correction is unfolding with (A) leg ended at 0.8400 (A: 0.8637, B: 0.9491 and 5-waver C ended at 0.8400. Wave (B) has ended at 0.9413 and impulsive wave (C) has either ended at 0.8067 or may extend one more fall to 0.8000 before prospect of another rally. Current breach of indicated resistance at 0.9043 confirms our view that the (C) leg has ended and bring stronger rebound towards 0.9150/54, then towards 0.9240/50.
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