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View profile [ISAUTHORINROLE:Can be subscribed to] Subscribe to AuthorUnsubscribe [/ISAUTHORINROLE:Can be subscribed to] Speculators Flip to Short Side of the USD | COT Report 06 May 2014 By RalphShell about 4 month(s) ago Updated about 4 month(s) ago Show Forex Dictionary links Your Rating: 12345
0 Votes0 Comments735 Views For the first time since the COT report dated February 12, 2013, the aggregate net position of speculators is now short the USD. For fifteen months specs have carried a net long position in the eight contracts we review, known as the Forex Razor Speculator Index. During this period when the long position was at its apex, specs held 540K contracts in May 2013. They are now short 1,575 contracts.
In essence we have had one year of USD selling in the futures markets, as the longs sold out their positions. This can be considered a token measurement of the specs attitude but we are uncertain of the relationship to the cash forex markets. Only time will tell if this spec move to the short side will grow or if it is merely a short term dalliance. Market action after the cut off for this report was not kind to longs in the euro, pound and Swiss franc.
Not all the spec positions are short the USD. Specs continue to hold large short positions versus the USD in the yen and the Canadian Dollar. The yen short was reduced to 84.6K contracts, and the C$ is down to 32.7K contracts.
US Dollar Index: There was a 10% surge in the OI to 60.5K, the largest in recent weeks. The set up remains the same. Large specs are short by a minor amount, and the small spec is a 3.3 ratio long. Trade after the Tuesday cut off for this report favored the long, but only after the Draghi speech.
Euro (EUR/USD): Large specs are long the euro and the small specs are short, and they both added modestly to their positions. The total net position is a long of 9.3K contracts of euros. The total OI grew, mush from the increase in the option trade which now composes 8.8% of the 322K contracts open.
British Pound Sterling (GBP/USD): There are only minor changes for the report. Both spec groups remain long the pound, but the total net spec long decreased to 58.6 from the recent record of 62.5K last week. The spreading trade, which is mostly option activity rose to 5% of the market.
Japanese Yen (JPY/USD): The recent strength in the yen versus the USD has been taking its toll on the yen spec shorts. The total short has decreased to 84.6K, and this is down from a 175K short at the beginning of the year. The large specs remain a 4 ratio long and the small shorts a 2. Option trade has gone up to 8% of the total open.
Swiss Franc (CHF/USD): There was a 15% surge in the OI as the total long SF position climbed to 22K, up from 17.4K last week. The late week reversal in the euro took the SF with it. Spec longs in the SF will likely be less plentiful next week.
Canadian Dollar (CAD/USD): The only notable change in the Loonie trade was the small spec who flipped back to the short side. They join the large spec who is a 32K long. The option trade a 6.2% of the total market is peculiar.
New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD): There are big traders in this small market who are almost a 6 ratio long. The total spec net long is 21.5K and the OI is only 33K. Kiwi longs lost money in the last three days and were probably sellers.
Australian Dollar (AUD/USD): Traders are having a difficult time regarding the direction of the Aussie. They remain long but reduced the position from 16.4K to 12.8K. The OI at 120K is small for the A$. Spreading which reflects the option trade is large at 6.7% of the market. Currency Commitments of Traders with Delta-adjusted Options and Futures Combined,
data through May 6, 2014 US Dollar Index (USD/EUR,JPY,GBP,CAD,CHF,SEK) (1) Large Traders (2) Small Traders (3) Commercial Open Interest Long Short Long Short Long Short Contracts: 60,515 41,627 43,251 10,028 3,012 4,796 10,188 Change: 6,888 4,853 6,147 1,242 621 -459 -1,131 % Open Interest:
68.8 71.5 16.6 5.0 7.9 16.8 Euro (EUR/USD) (1) Large Traders (2) Small Traders (3) Commercial Open Interest Long Short Long Short Long Short Contracts: 322,339 110,796 79,446 54,460 76,573 128,766 138,004 Change: 10,424 8,160 2,071 6,190 5,216 -7,526 -464 % Open Interest:
34.4 24.6 16.9 23.8 39.9 42.8 British Pound Sterling (GBP/USD) (1) Large Traders (2) Small Traders (3) Commercial Open Interest Long Short Long Short Long Short Contracts: 268,337 82,380 44,870 48,327 27,234 124,322 182,926 Change: 14,562 -2,924 2,155 5,418 4,222 8,251 4,367 % Open Interest:
30.7 16.7 18.0 10.1 46.3 68.2 Japanese Yen (JPY/USD) (1) Large Traders (2) Small Traders (3) Commercial Open Interest Long Short Long Short Long Short Contracts: 187,970 19,055 79,947 23,153 46,878 130,668 46,052 Change: -532 5,727 -3,532 4,126 -1,245 -12,376 2,253 % Open Interest:
10.1 42.5 12.3 24.9 69.5 24.5 Swiss Franc (CHF/USD) (1) Large Traders (2) Small Traders (3) Commercial Open Interest Long Short Long Short Long Short Contracts: 61,427 25,340 14,774 23,789 12,340 11,139 33,154 Change: 9,294 3,242 4,437 5,717 -70 348 4,940 % Open Interest:
41.3 24.1 38.7 20.1 18.1 54.0 Canadian Dollar (CAD/USD) (1) Large Traders (2) Small Traders (3) Commercial Open Interest Long Short Long Short Long Short Contracts: 140,419 28,200 60,217 32,107 32,778 71,343 38,655 Change: 302 -1,415 -1,314 392 1,224 1,881 949 % Open Interest:
20.1 42.9 22.9 23.3 50.8 27.5 New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD) (1) Large Traders (2) Small Traders (3) Commercial Open Interest Long Short Long Short Long Short Contracts: 33,096 25,027 4,283 5,118 4,341 2,686 24,207 Change: 3,227 2,048 -216 231 1,547 895 1,843 % Open Interest:
75.6 12.9 15.5 13.1 8.1 73.1 Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) (1) Large Traders (2) Small Traders (3) Commercial Open Interest Long Short Long Short Long Short Contracts: 119,988 44,903 35,206 28,934 25,829 38,166 50,969 Change: -3,222 -5,161 -3,415 1,031 65 349 -431 % Open Interest:
37.4 29.3 24.1 21.5 31.8 42.5 .cottable td {font-size:11px;font-family:Tahoma,Arial;}
To view the COT report data released by the U.S. Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), please see the attached files.
For general information about the COT report please see the article The CFTC Commitments of Traders Report.Related Files COT-Report-Data-06-May-2014-Cotton-No-2-ICE-Futures-US (25.4 KB) COT-Report-Data-06-May-2014-BUTTER-Chicago-Mercantile-Exchange ( About the Author, Ralph Shell: Traded personal account profitably for 19 of the 20 years at the CBOT. Ranked as one of the top five Forex opinion leaders on SeekingAlpha.com. Extensive career as a commodity broker and trader, formerly a commodity broker and grain analyst for Merrill Lynch in Chicago. Member of Chicago Board Of Trade for eighteen years. Floor broker for the Sparks Division of Refco for nine of those years. Also a former member of the Kansas City Board of Trade and the Minneapolis Grain Exchange. Floor trader for over twenty years, specializing in soy beans, wheat and the grains. Ten years as grain merchandiser for Continental Grain Company. Grain trading career included five years in the export grain markets as a wheat and then a soy bean trader. Also traded barge grain out of St Louis, and was the Assistant Manager of the South West Region of the US. First foreign exchange contracts in futures and options over 30 years ago well before the days of online retail fx trading. Today, Ralph is involved exclusively with analyzing and trading the forex market. Comments Please login/signup to comment There are currently no comments, be the first to post one. Related Articles Brazilian Real Advances as Investors Weigh Rousseff’s ProspectsUS Capacity Utilization worse than expected 78.8%US Industrial Production (M/M) worse than expected -0.1%PL Budget Performance % Y.t.d. 51.9%PL Budget Balance -24636.4M(zl)
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0 Votes0 Comments735 Views For the first time since the COT report dated February 12, 2013, the aggregate net position of speculators is now short the USD. For fifteen months specs have carried a net long position in the eight contracts we review, known as the Forex Razor Speculator Index. During this period when the long position was at its apex, specs held 540K contracts in May 2013. They are now short 1,575 contracts.In essence we have had one year of USD selling in the futures markets, as the longs sold out their positions. This can be considered a token measurement of the specs attitude but we are uncertain of the relationship to the cash forex markets. Only time will tell if this spec move to the short side will grow or if it is merely a short term dalliance. Market action after the cut off for this report was not kind to longs in the euro, pound and Swiss franc.
Not all the spec positions are short the USD. Specs continue to hold large short positions versus the USD in the yen and the Canadian Dollar. The yen short was reduced to 84.6K contracts, and the C$ is down to 32.7K contracts.
US Dollar Index: There was a 10% surge in the OI to 60.5K, the largest in recent weeks. The set up remains the same. Large specs are short by a minor amount, and the small spec is a 3.3 ratio long. Trade after the Tuesday cut off for this report favored the long, but only after the Draghi speech.
Euro (EUR/USD): Large specs are long the euro and the small specs are short, and they both added modestly to their positions. The total net position is a long of 9.3K contracts of euros. The total OI grew, mush from the increase in the option trade which now composes 8.8% of the 322K contracts open.
British Pound Sterling (GBP/USD): There are only minor changes for the report. Both spec groups remain long the pound, but the total net spec long decreased to 58.6 from the recent record of 62.5K last week. The spreading trade, which is mostly option activity rose to 5% of the market.
Japanese Yen (JPY/USD): The recent strength in the yen versus the USD has been taking its toll on the yen spec shorts. The total short has decreased to 84.6K, and this is down from a 175K short at the beginning of the year. The large specs remain a 4 ratio long and the small shorts a 2. Option trade has gone up to 8% of the total open.
Swiss Franc (CHF/USD): There was a 15% surge in the OI as the total long SF position climbed to 22K, up from 17.4K last week. The late week reversal in the euro took the SF with it. Spec longs in the SF will likely be less plentiful next week.
Canadian Dollar (CAD/USD): The only notable change in the Loonie trade was the small spec who flipped back to the short side. They join the large spec who is a 32K long. The option trade a 6.2% of the total market is peculiar.
New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD): There are big traders in this small market who are almost a 6 ratio long. The total spec net long is 21.5K and the OI is only 33K. Kiwi longs lost money in the last three days and were probably sellers.
Australian Dollar (AUD/USD): Traders are having a difficult time regarding the direction of the Aussie. They remain long but reduced the position from 16.4K to 12.8K. The OI at 120K is small for the A$. Spreading which reflects the option trade is large at 6.7% of the market. Currency Commitments of Traders with Delta-adjusted Options and Futures Combined,
data through May 6, 2014 US Dollar Index (USD/EUR,JPY,GBP,CAD,CHF,SEK) (1) Large Traders (2) Small Traders (3) Commercial Open Interest Long Short Long Short Long Short Contracts: 60,515 41,627 43,251 10,028 3,012 4,796 10,188 Change: 6,888 4,853 6,147 1,242 621 -459 -1,131 % Open Interest:
68.8 71.5 16.6 5.0 7.9 16.8 Euro (EUR/USD) (1) Large Traders (2) Small Traders (3) Commercial Open Interest Long Short Long Short Long Short Contracts: 322,339 110,796 79,446 54,460 76,573 128,766 138,004 Change: 10,424 8,160 2,071 6,190 5,216 -7,526 -464 % Open Interest:
34.4 24.6 16.9 23.8 39.9 42.8 British Pound Sterling (GBP/USD) (1) Large Traders (2) Small Traders (3) Commercial Open Interest Long Short Long Short Long Short Contracts: 268,337 82,380 44,870 48,327 27,234 124,322 182,926 Change: 14,562 -2,924 2,155 5,418 4,222 8,251 4,367 % Open Interest:
30.7 16.7 18.0 10.1 46.3 68.2 Japanese Yen (JPY/USD) (1) Large Traders (2) Small Traders (3) Commercial Open Interest Long Short Long Short Long Short Contracts: 187,970 19,055 79,947 23,153 46,878 130,668 46,052 Change: -532 5,727 -3,532 4,126 -1,245 -12,376 2,253 % Open Interest:
10.1 42.5 12.3 24.9 69.5 24.5 Swiss Franc (CHF/USD) (1) Large Traders (2) Small Traders (3) Commercial Open Interest Long Short Long Short Long Short Contracts: 61,427 25,340 14,774 23,789 12,340 11,139 33,154 Change: 9,294 3,242 4,437 5,717 -70 348 4,940 % Open Interest:
41.3 24.1 38.7 20.1 18.1 54.0 Canadian Dollar (CAD/USD) (1) Large Traders (2) Small Traders (3) Commercial Open Interest Long Short Long Short Long Short Contracts: 140,419 28,200 60,217 32,107 32,778 71,343 38,655 Change: 302 -1,415 -1,314 392 1,224 1,881 949 % Open Interest:
20.1 42.9 22.9 23.3 50.8 27.5 New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD) (1) Large Traders (2) Small Traders (3) Commercial Open Interest Long Short Long Short Long Short Contracts: 33,096 25,027 4,283 5,118 4,341 2,686 24,207 Change: 3,227 2,048 -216 231 1,547 895 1,843 % Open Interest:
75.6 12.9 15.5 13.1 8.1 73.1 Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) (1) Large Traders (2) Small Traders (3) Commercial Open Interest Long Short Long Short Long Short Contracts: 119,988 44,903 35,206 28,934 25,829 38,166 50,969 Change: -3,222 -5,161 -3,415 1,031 65 349 -431 % Open Interest:
37.4 29.3 24.1 21.5 31.8 42.5 .cottable td {font-size:11px;font-family:Tahoma,Arial;}
To view the COT report data released by the U.S. Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), please see the attached files.
For general information about the COT report please see the article The CFTC Commitments of Traders Report.Related Files COT-Report-Data-06-May-2014-Cotton-No-2-ICE-Futures-US (25.4 KB) COT-Report-Data-06-May-2014-BUTTER-Chicago-Mercantile-Exchange (
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Razor on Razor © ForexRazor | Terms of Use | Privacy Policy Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. The past performance of any trading system is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Opinions expressed at ForexRazor.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of ForexRazor.com or its management. ForexRazor.com has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any author: errors and Omissions may occur. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, statistics, prices or other information contained on this website, by ForexRazor.com, its employees, partners or contributors, is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexRazor.com will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Login Username Password Keep me signed in Forgot Username/Password? Sign up with
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